PAKISTAN GENERAL ELECTIONS 2024
General elections are scheduled to be held in Pakistan on 8 February 2024 to elect the members of the 16th National Assembly. The detailed schedule was announced by Election Commission of Pakistan on 15 December 2023.
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-Last election24.35%, 82 seats13.03%, 54 seats4.85%, 12 seatsSeats needed
87 115 157The two major parties are Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), led by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, the largest party in the previous elections, is fielding its candidates as Independents after a controversial Supreme Court ruling stripped them of their electoral symbol in the run-up to the elections.
Background
2018 elections
General elections were held in Pakistan on Wednesday 25 July 2018 after the completion of a five-year term by the outgoing government. At the national level, elections were held in 272 constituencies, each electing one member to the National Assembly. At the provincial level, elections were held in each of the four provinces to elect Members of the Provincial Assemblies (MPA).
As a result of the elections, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) became the single largest party at the national level both in terms of both popular vote and seats. At the provincial level, the PTI remained the largest party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP); the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) remained the largest party in Sindh and the newly-formed Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) became the largest party in Balochistan. In Punjab, a hung parliament prevailed with Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) emerging as the largest party in terms of directly elected seats by a narrow margin. However, following the support of Pakistan Muslim League (Q) and the joining of independent MPAs into the PTI, the latter became the largest party and was able to form the government.
2022 constitutional crisis
On 8 March 2022, the opposition parties submitted a motion of no confidence against Khan to the National Assembly's secretariat.[1][2] On 27 March 2022, Khan waved a diplomatic cypher from US in the public,[3] claiming that it demands to remove Khan's government in a coup.[4] Though, later he changed his stance about the US conspiracy against his government.[5][6] On 1 April 2022, Prime Minister Khan announced that in context of the no-confidence motion against him in the National Assembly, the three options were discussed with "establishment" to choose from viz: "resignation, no-confidence [vote] or elections".[7] On 3 April 2022, President Arif Alvi dissolved the National Assembly of Pakistan on Khan's advice, after the Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly rejected and set-aside the motion of no confidence; this move would have required elections to the National Assembly to be held within 90 days.[8][9] On 10 April, after a Supreme Court ruling that the no-confidence motion was illegally rejected, a no-confidence vote was conducted and he was ousted from office,[10][11] becoming the first prime minister in Pakistan to be removed from office by a vote of no confidence.[12][13][14] Khan claimed the US was behind his removal because he conducted an independent foreign policy and had friendly relations with China and Russia. His removal led to protests from his supporters across Pakistan.[15][16][17]
Schedule controversy
The general elections were supposed to be held in Pakistan less than 90 days after the dissolution of the National Assembly, which was prematurely dissolved on 10 August 2023 by President Arif Alvi on the advice of the Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. This meant that the election must be held not later than 8 November 2023.[18][19] However, on 5 August 2023, the results of the 2023 digital census were approved by the Council of Common Interests headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Therefore, elections were to be delayed to February 2024 at the latest, as announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). However, on 13 September 2023, President Alvi proposed 6 November 2023 as a date to the ECP and advised it to seek guidance from the Supreme Court for the announcement of the election date.[20][21][22][23] On 2 November 2023, the ECP and the President agreed on 8 February 2024 as the date for the general election.[24][25]
Return of Nawaz Sharif to electoral politics
At the start of May 2023, the PDM government adopted a law that allows for filing of review petitions against prior Supreme Court verdicts.[26] At the end of June, another law, limiting disqualification to five years, was adopted. It also allows the electoral commission to announce the date of an election without consulting the President of the country.[27]
After serving 12 months of his 7-year sentence on corruption charges, former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif had left the country on 19 November 2019 for receiving medical treatment in London, promising to return in 4 weeks.[28] He was declared a fugitive in 2021 after failing to appear before courts despite summons.[29] Sharif obtained protective bail on 19 October 2023, which allowed him to return from 4 years of self-imposed exile without being arrested.[30] On October 21, he returned to the country where he was welcomed in Lahore by a gathering of tens of thousands of his supporters.[31]
On 9 January 2024, a 7-member Supreme Court bench under Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa, hearing a review petition against lifetime disqualification, announced a 6-1 majority verdict with Justice Yahya Afridi dissenting. The verdict set aside the earlier Supreme Court interpretation of lifetime disqualification for the article 62(1)(f) of the constitution, stating that it violated fundamental rights, and instead set a 5-year disqualification in accordance with the newly passed laws for lawmakers who fail the moral standard of “sadiq and ameen” (honest and righteous).[32] The timing of the verdict ensured that Sharif, who was disqualified for life in the Panama Papers case in 2017, is eligible to contest these elections with a possible fourth term as prime minister.[33]
PTI de facto ban through intra-party election verdict
On 22 December 2023, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) decided against allowing the PTI to keep its electoral symbol, asserting that the party had failed to conduct intra-party elections to the Commission's satisfaction. Subsequently, on the same day, the PTI appealed to the Peshawar High Court (PHC) challenging the ECP's decision. Consequently, a single-member bench suspended the ECP's order until 9 January 2024. On 30 December 2023, the ECP submitted a review application to the PHC. In the following days, a two-member bench lifted the suspension order while hearing the case. However, on 10 January 2024, the two-member bench deemed the ECP's order "illegal, without any lawful authority, and of no legal effect." Responding to this, on 11 January, the ECP contested the ruling in the Supreme Court. On 13 January, a three-member bench, headed by Chief Justice Isa, sided with the ECP, reinstating their initial decision to deny the PTI its election symbol, the cricket bat, due to the party's failure to conduct intra-party elections in accordance with its constitution. Consequently, the PTI was unable to allocate party tickets to any of its candidates, resulting in all party candidates being listed as independent candidates with individual electoral symbols.[34] The party also lost the right to nominate candidates for 226 reserved seats across the central and provincial legislatures.[35]
The SCP's decision led some legal experts to describe the ruling as a "huge blow to fundamental rights" and "a defeat for democratic norms."[36]
Allegations of pre-poll rigging
Some observers, including the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, have pointed to what appears to be pre-poll rigging in the run-up to the upcoming elections. There have been notable actions against the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and its leaders, including snatching of nomination papers, arbitrary arrests of candidates and their supporters, and systematic rejection of nomination papers. This situation has led to widespread allegations of 'election engineering' and manipulative practices that could potentially favor certain political groups, casting doubts over the fairness of the electoral process.[37][38]
On 26 January 2024, PTI's official website and a separate website made for disseminating information regarding the individual electoral symbols of the party's candidates were blocked in Pakistan.[39] Previously, social media was blocked in the country during the party's virtual electoral events on at least 3 separate occasions as per internet watchdog, Netblocks.[40][41]
Journalists covering the elections reported a 'near-blanket ban' on their ability to cover PTI candidates fairly. News channels allegedly received messages from individuals belonging to Pakistan's military establishment instructing them to remove all references to PTI in their visuals, graphics, and talking points. [42]
Schedule
The schedule of the election was announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan on 15 December 2023.[43]
| Sr no | Poll Event | Schedule |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Notice Issued by the Returning Officers | 19 December 2023 |
| 2 | Dates of filing Nomination papers with the Returning Officers by the candidates | 20 December 2023 to 24 December 2023 |
| 3 | Publication of names of the nominated candidates. | 24 December 2023 |
| 4 | Last date of scrutiny of nomination papers by the Returning Officer | 25 December 2023 to 30 December 2023 |
| 5 | Last date of filing appeals against decisions of the Returning Officer rejecting/accepting nomination papers. | 3 January 2024 |
| 6 | Last date for deciding of appeals by the Appellate Tribunal | 10 January 2024 |
| 7 | Publication of revised list of candidates | 11 January 2024 |
| 8 | Last date of withdrawal of candidature and publication of revised list of candidates | 12 January 2024 |
| 9 | Allotment of election symbol to contesting candidates | 13 January 2024 |
| 10 | Date of Polling and Counting of Votes | 8 February 2024 |
Electoral system
The 336 members of the National Assembly consist of 266 general seats elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies,[44] 60 seats reserved for women elected by proportional representation based on the number of general seats won by each party in each province, and ten seats reserved for non-Muslims elected through proportional representation based on the number of overall general seats won by each party.
The government had passed a bill that required the next general elections to be held using EVMs (electronic voting machines). This was aimed at bringing an end to the allegations of rigging that have plagued previous elections in Pakistan, but the opposition's opinion was that it would make it extremely easy for PTI to rig the elections in their favour through security loopholes.[45] In 2022 when the PTI-led government was ousted through a successful vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly, the 11 opposition parties, some of them being long-time rivals, formed a new government and passed the Elections Amendment Bill, which nullified the use of EVMs in the next general elections. Hence, EVMs will not be used in next general elections.
Timeline
In July 2023 the ECP invited political parties to submit applications for the allocation of electoral symbols.[46]
As of 25 July 2023, the total number of registered voters in Pakistan stood around 127 million as compared to 106 million (including 59.22 million men and 46.73 million women voters) in 2018, according to the data released by the ECP.[47] According to the figures, the number of eligible female voters stood at 58.5 million (around 46 percent of the total registered voters) while the number of eligible male voters was 68.5 million (about 54 percent of the total voters).[48]
In late September the ECP announced that the citizens over 18 can update their voter details until 25 October 2023. The ECP decided to “unfreeze” the electoral rolls to allow registered voters to rectify or update their details.[49]
On 2 November 2023, President Arif Alvi and the ECP came to an agreement on holding general elections on 8 February, after a meeting was held in Aiwan-i-Sadr on the orders of the Supreme Court of Pakistan (SCP). The SCP had instructed the ECP to consult with the President on the poll date.[50]
On 15 December 2023, the Election Commission of Pakistan issued the election schedule. 22 December 2023 was set as the last date for filing nomination papers.[51]
On 22 December 2023, the Election Commission of Pakistan extended the deadline for the submission of nomination papers by two days to 24 December 2023.[52]
Parties
The table below lists each party that either received a share of the vote higher than 0.5% in the 2018 Pakistan general election or had representation in the 15th National Assembly of Pakistan. Political parties are ordered by their vote share in the 2018 elections. Independent Candidates bagged 11.46% of the vote and 13 national assembly seats (both general seats and total seats in the 15th National Assembly, as reserved seats for women and minorities, are given to political parties) in 2018.
Opinion polls
Opinion polling near elections by top Pakistani election surveyors namely Gallup Pakistan and Institute of Public Opinion Research (IPOR) showed that Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) has regained its position against its rival Pakistan Tehreek Insaaf (PTI) since June 2023, mainly due to return of Nawaz Sharif from exile and Supreme court’s decision disallowing bat symbol. PMLN has emerged most popular party in Punjab province which have majority of seats in Pakistan National assembly. In Punjab PMLN has regained its lost popularity which they enjoyed in 2013 when they received 41% of votes and now, they are standing around the same level at 45%. Whereas PTI support is steady at 35% as comparing to last July 2018 elections in Punjab.As contrary to the general perception in the social and traditional media PMLN has significantly regained its lost ground even in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa which is considered PTI stronghold. [54] [55] [56]
| Last date of polling | Polling firm | Link | PTI | PML(N) | PPP | MMA[a] | TLP | Other | Ind. | Lead | Margin of error | Sample size | Undecideds & Non-voters[b] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 January 2024 | The PTI was not allotted the electoral symbol and therefore, is barred from contesting the 2024 elections.[57] | ||||||||||||
| 2 December 2023 | Gohar Ali Khan, Imran Khan's lawyer and nominee, is elected, unopposed, as "caretaker chairman" of PTI.[58][59] | ||||||||||||
| 21 October 2023 | Nawaz Sharif returns, under protective judicial bail, from 4 years of self-imposed exile in London.[60] | ||||||||||||
| 10 August 2023 | The National Assembly is dissolved by President Arif Alvi on advice of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.[61] | ||||||||||||
| 5 August 2023 | Imran Khan is again arrested, found guilty of "corrupt practices" by an Islamabad trial court, and disqualified from holding public office.[62] | ||||||||||||
| 30 June 2023 | Gallup Pakistan | 42% | 20% | 12% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 22% | ±2.5% | 3,500 | 13% | ||
| 9–12 May 2023 | Imran Khan is arrested from the Islamabad High Court, triggering nationwide protests, and then released.[63][64] | ||||||||||||
| 3 November 2022 | Imran Khan is injured in an assassination attempt in Wazirabad during the 2022 Azadi March II.[65] | ||||||||||||
| 3 June 2022 | IPOR (IRI) | 39% | 33% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 6% | ±2 - 3% | 2,003 | 25% | ||
| 11 April 2022 | Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz's brother, is elected Prime Minister[66] | ||||||||||||
| 10 April 2022 | Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion[67] | ||||||||||||
| 21 March 2022 | IPOR (IRI) | 35% | 33% | 19% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | ±2 - 3% | 3,509 | 16% | ||
| 31 January 2022 | Gallup Pakistan | 34% | 33% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 9% | 1% | ±3 - 5% | 5,688 | 33% | ||
| 9 January 2022 | IPOR (IRI) | 31% | 33% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 11% | 1% | 2% | ±2 - 3% | 3,769 | 11% | |
| 11 November 2020 | IPOR (IRI) | 36% | 38% | 13% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 2% | ±3.22% | 2,003 | 32% | ||
| 13 August 2020 | IPOR (IRI) | 33% | 38% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 5% | ±2.95% | 2,024 | 26% | ||
| 30 June 2020 | IPOR (IRI) | 24% | 27% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 33% | 3% | ±2.38% | 1,702 | N/A[c] | ||
| 19 November 2019 | Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, while under restrictive judicial bail, flew to London on medical grounds[68] | ||||||||||||
| 24 June 2019 | Gallup Pakistan | 31% | 28% | 15% | 5% | 21% | 3% | ±3 - 5% | ~1,400 | N/A | |||
| 22 November 2018 | IPOR (IRI) | 43% | 27% | 15% | 1% | 1% | 11% | 1% | 16% | ±2.05% | 3,991 | 22% | |
| 17 August 2018 | Imran Khan is elected Prime Minister of Pakistan[69][70] | ||||||||||||
| 25 July 2018 | 2018 Elections | ECP | 31.8% | 24.3% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 7.5% | N/A | 53,123,733 | N/A |
- ^ Certain polls only include data for the JUI(F) instead of the MMA, and in those cases data for the JUI(F) is used because the JUI(F) is the largest constituent party of the MMA and makes up most of its base.
- ^ This is a column that lists the percentage of undecided voters and non-voters in certain polls that publish this data. As some polls do not publish any data whatsoever on undecided voters and non-voters, the columns with survey participants that had a preference when polled are all that is needed to reach 100%. In surveys that do include data on non-voters and undecided voters, a scaling factor is applied to the margin of error and the rest of the data (for example, if the number of undecideds and non-voters equals 20%, each party would have their vote share scaled up by a factor of 100/80 (the formula is 100/(100-UndecidedPercentage)). This is done to keep consistency between the different polls and the different types data they provide.
- ^ This poll or crosstabulation did not include any data about undecided voters or non-voters and cut them out completely from the published results.
Security concerns
On 25 January 2024, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan pledged not to stage attacks on election rallies and would limit itself to attacking military and police targets during the election period. This followed the government's decision to deploy troops in sensitive constituencies after intelligence agencies warned that militants could target rallies.[71]
See also
- 2024 Pakistani provincial elections
- 2024 Punjab provincial election
- 2024 Sindh provincial election
- 2024 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial election
- 2024 Balochistan provincial election
- 2024 Pakistani presidential election
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Pakistan: Election likely to be delayed in latest political crisis
Pakistan's parliament has been formally dissolved, but polls meant to be held within 90 days will likely be delayed.
The electoral commission says electoral boundaries must be redrawn to reflect fresh census data, a months-long process.
Last week, former prime minister Imran Khan was arrested and jailed, and then barred from politics for five years.
He had openly challenged the powerful military establishment and claimed it was "petrified" of elections.
With President Arif Alvi's order on Wednesday to dissolve the National Assembly, a caretaker government will take charge. Outgoing Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his government have been given three days to name an interim leader.
A Election Commission of Pakistan official told the BBC: "The elections will be held once the census is done, which will take about four months' time. As a result, the elections may be delayed till next year."
Mr Sharif, who warned that the country cannot progress without "national unity", also told reporters recently that polls may not be held this year.
Some feel the election is being delayed as the ruling Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) coalition isn't confident about winning at the polls, due to Mr Khan's enduring popularity, as well as the effects of runaway inflation despite a bailout from the International Monetary Fund.
Despite their once close relationship, Mr Khan has rattled the military like no other politician before him. Senior analyst Rasool Bakhsh Raees even reckons that the former cricket star's detention will increase his popularity.
In May, Mr Khan's arrest on corruption charges sparked nationwide protests that saw at least eight deaths and some 1,400 arrests, amid unprecedented attacks on military property and buildings.
The 70-year old, who is appealing his conviction on graft charges, has claimed that the military's goal was to "eventually put me into prison and to crush my party."
But the rule remains the same: anyone who challenges Pakistan's military, even someone with the charisma and international stature of Mr Khan, must go. The former cricket star is simply the latest politician since the 1970s to find this out the hard way.
As former senator Afrasiab Khattak told the BBC, there are two systems of government operating in parallel. Now, "the unsanctioned, de facto force wants to take over the parliamentary process," said Mr Khattak. "Pakistan's military has always been powerful, but they want more powers so that their unsanctioned rule is not challenged either by politicians, activists, or journalists."
Two draconian laws were tabled in the National Assembly last week, in a bid to further enhance the powers of the military and intelligence agencies.
Proposed amendments to the century-old Official Secrets Act will broadly empower the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Intelligence Bureau (IB) to arrest citizens over "suspected breach of official secrets". In addition, a new bill recommends a three-year jail term for anyone who discloses the identity of an intelligence official.
The amendments provoked a ruckus in parliament, with both the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and PML-N's coalition partners calling the government out for passing "draconian laws in haste" and without discussion.
Senator Mushtaq Ahmed of Jamaat-e-Islami also warned that the Official Secrets Act amendment will grant intelligence agencies "extraordinary powers" of arrest and search without warrant. "This will have an impact on the human rights, individual rights and press freedom across the country."
The Pakistani intelligence services are regularly accused of illegally detaining opposition members, politicians, activists and journalists, with human rights organisations noting the increasing number of enforced disappearances every month.
In the month of July alone, 157 more cases of enforced disappearances were reported, according to the government-led Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances.
The bills have been sent to President Alvi, a co-founder of the PTI, and must be signed by him before they can be legislated into law.
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